18th Dr Augusto Litonjua Endowed Lectureship: Restriction and weight loss vs. TD2—the latest evidence

02 Aug 2025
Dr. Mel M. Beluan
Dr. Mel M. BeluanMD
Dr. Mel M. Beluan
Dr. Mel M. Beluan MD
Endogenous saturated fat production in T2D

According to Taylor, individuals with normal muscle insulin sensitivity apportion post-meal glucose as follows: Most of it is oxidized as energy, one fourth is stored as liver glycogen, a third is stored in skeletal muscles, and lastly, only a tiny portion is stored as saturated fat via de novo lipogenesis. [Am J Physiol 1993;265:e224-229; PNAS 2007;104:12587]

He then contrasted this with a person who has relative muscular insulin resistance: Muscle storage is decreased to eight percent while changes in liver storage are not much (since this storage is affected by blood glucose levels and not by insulin); much is still oxidized—but now, over a third is stored as saturated fat. [Am J Physiol 2006;284:e286-294; PNAS 2007;104:12587]

An implication of the de novo saturated fat synthesis, Taylor noted, is that while nutritionists focus on the dietary control of such fat, they are unaware that the body itself can produce an excess of it, which would help drive on TD2 and its cardiovascular (CV) complications.

Keys to glucose control via weight loss: liver's glucose production and fat–dependent insulin sensitivity

“The liver produces glucose every minute of the day.” But In T2D, Taylor said that it produces 50 percent more glucose than usual” [JCI 1996;97:126-132; AJP 2002;283:E275-83], pointing out that if a patient asks, “Why is my glucose sometimes higher in the morning when I wake up despite not eating for eight hours?” the answer is that plasma glucose is being topped up and kept high by the liver.

“Our work shows that the liver’s insulin sensitivity is strictly related to the concentration of liver fat”. Modest calorie restriction for over ten weeks resulted in around eight-kilogram weight loss, bringing about a dramatic reduction in liver fat levels and, then—strikingly—an increased suppression of hepatic glucose production to about nondiabetic levels, Taylor said. “Improvement in whole body insulin sensitivity is due to the liver and not the muscle.” [Diabetes 2005;54:603–8] 

Taylor's twin liver/pancreas cycle hypothesis of T2D etiology

The liver’s role is central to Taylor’s proposed twin cycle hypothesis of T2D etiology (see figure). In this hypothesis, the liver drives up basal insulin, which, in turn, drives up the conversion of glucose to fat, eg, de novo lipogenesis, thus, reinforcing the cycle.  

The liver also lends to the pancreas cycle (right side of figure) by elevating plasma triglycerides which tend to deposit into ectopic sites like the pancreas. Long-term exposure of pancreatic β cells to triglycerides suppresses their function in susceptible people. [Diabetol 2008;51:1781–89]

Testing the hypothesis: Counterpoint study

A way to test the two-cycle hypothesis is to control the positive calorie balance (figure). Taylor designed the Counterpoint study, to subject participants who were diabetic for up to four years to calorie restriction (800 kcal/day) while on hypoglycemic medications withdrawal.

In eight weeks, the subjects lost an average of 15.3 kg of body weight. The researchers observed a dramatic fall in plasma glucose similar to normal levels. Also, the study's MRI data showed that the subjects' liver fat decreased from above 10 to below 5 percent. Plasma triglycerides, HbA1c, pancreas fat, and first phase insulin response likewise recovered. Moreover, the measured improvement in insulin sensitivity was attributed to the liver alone, not the muscle. [Diabetol 2011;54:2506–14] “Liver fat is not a complication of diabetes; it’s a manifestation of overnutrition. There is still remarkable misinterpretation of data that leads some to suggest that liver fat needs to be controlled with drugs, when in fact it’s just a case of overnutrition.” 

Counterbalance study: the follow-up to Counterpoint

“A question that arose was, ‘Were the Counterpoint data a reflection of true return to the nondiabetic state, or were they just a starvation effect?”

In the Counterbalance study, patients who had T2D for 0.5 to 24 years were monitored while they reverted to normal diet. Taylor noted that the results supported the durability of the regained nondiabetic state. Even for nonremitters, the liver cycle was normalized, although beta cell unresponsiveness persisted. Remission was reportedly dependent on T2D duration: The earlier the dietary intervention, the more durable the return to the normal state. The ten-year CV risk score reportedly decreased from 15 to six percent (normal). [Diabetes Care 2016;39:808–15]

Interestingly, a study by psychologists showed that the Counterbalance dietary intervention was well liked by the patients, mainly because the short-term rapid weight loss afforded them right away the normal activities of daily living, according to Taylor. [Diab Med 2017;34:1554–67; Nutrients 2021;13:1465]

Primary care trial intervention and real world studies

The DiRECT randomized clinical trial showed that, in the primary care setting, medication withdrawal, diet replacement, food reintroduction, and weight loss support for over a third of T2D patients achieved long-lasting remissions at two years. As Taylor related, the higher the sustained weight loss, the longer the remission.  [Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2019;7:344]

In a follow-up to DiRECT, for participants who regained weight and relapsed, their liver fat, plasma triglyceride, and first phase insulin profiles also reverted back to diabetic levels. [Cell Metab 2020;31:233–49]

A longer study Taylor cited showed that the DiRECT intervention at five years led to an average weight loss of 6.1 kg, with 13 percent in remission. While there were only few participants still in remission, they were those who had avoided regaining weight far longer—a remarkable feat when compared with current routine treatment. [Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2024;12:233–46]

“Any weight gain–related relapse is linked to pre-existing T2D risk, such as insulin resistance in the muscles, which has never changed.” He branded the common belief “achieving rapid weight loss makes one at a higher risk of rapidly gaining weight” irrational as the newly attained lower body weight requires lower dietary requirements.

In the real world setting (ie, no experimental intervention), Taylor showed that diet restriction and weight loss–mediated remission is achievable, based on the first-year data from England's National Health Service (NHS) Type 2 Diabetes Path to Remission (NHS T2DR) program, although the rate of remission was lower than those found in research studies. [Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2024;12:653-63]

Lowering the Filipino BMI cutoff due to incidence of low-BMI TD2

“In the US, among individuals with body mass indices (BMI) below 25 kg/m², Filipino Americans are said to have thrice the T2D susceptibility of those with white European ancestry.” [Can J Pub Health 2017;108:e36–42]

Moreover, Taylor mentioned one study that determined the optimal Filipino BMI cutoff for cardiometabolic diseases to be 23 rather than the usual 25kg/m². [Pagsisihan et al. Presented at Asia Oceana Congress of Endocrinology, Philippines, 2014] 

Results of a long-term American study on the link of T2D to nurses’ obesity also appear to mirror the above study. “The relative risk of getting T2D surprisingly increased four-fold when the nurses' BMIs increased from below 23 to between 23 to 25 kg/m². [N Engl J Med 2001;345:790–797]

Taylor suggested that the BMI cutoff for Filipinos, who are in general more susceptible, should even be lower, at 21 kg/m², but he qualified that further work is needed to validate his opinion. A study he cited to support a lower Filipino cutoff is the UK Prospective Diabetes Study. The study's population bell distribution curve of diabetics across BMIs showed that many of them fell within the normal BMI range. He reiterated that T2D is primarily not caused by obesity, but the latter increases the likelihood of the disease. Hypothetically, “if the diabetics in this population curve were to lose 15 kg of body weight, they, including those with normal BMI, would have achieved remission.” [Clinical Science 2015;128:405–10]

So, can normal-BMI diabetic individuals achieve remission through weight loss? To test this hypothesis, ReTUNE study’s one-year data showed that in “T2D individuals with BMIs 21 to 27 kg/m², 70 percent remission was achieved at an average threshold of 6.5 percent weight loss.” [Clinical Science 2023;137:1333–46; Diabetol 2021;51:24]

He stressed that persons with T2DM should be treated as individuals and not with cutoffs from epidemiology, as the latter is only a guide. “Personal fat thresholds may vary individually and among different ethnic groups.”

Simplifying everything for use in the clinics

“If a patient asks, ‘What’s causing my diabetes?’ the answer is that basically one is eating a little bit more than what one requires for energy to maintain the body for many years. Despite claims that T2D has heterogeneous causes, T2D in genetically diverse individuals is still tightly linked with overnutrition, as consistently borne out by epidemiological data.”

The genetic diversity notwithstanding, overnutrition leads to T2DM in genetically susceptible individuals. That is, as Taylor explained, overnutrition drives two underlying genetic risks: the tendency to exceed subcutaneous fat capacity and the susceptibility of β cells to fat exposure—if either overnutrition or any of these two genetic risks is absent in genetically predisposed groups such as Filipinos, T2D does not happen.

An implication of this process, he said, is that one can be obese without having T2D if β cell susceptibility is absent. Hence, obesity is not synonymous with diabetes. In the US and the UK, many obese individuals (eg, BMI above 40) of Caucasian origin don’t have T2D. [Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2024;664–73] 

Hammering home the durable effects of remission

To reiterate the impact of weight loss on TD2 remission on the long term, Taylor cited again the DiRECT extension study’s five-year data, which showed better health status for the intervention group, halving the rate of serious adverse events when compared with routine care. [Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2024;12:233–46]

How about at an even longer period? Taylor offered the Look AHEAD trial, which demonstrated that remission arising from lifestyle intervention for 12 years conferred substantially lower incidence of CV and chronic kidney diseases when compared with remission-free individuals. [Diabetol 2024;67:459–69]

Final thoughts

“If a person has gained weight in life and has true T2D, they are too heavy for their own constitution. Weight loss is the answer. Taking this message to the clinic allows one to shape therapy for the individual patient. Not everyone can undergo procedures or take medicines to get the same benefits. In terms of medical advance, this is the way of conferring future health.”