25M people seen to live with Parkinson’s disease in 2050

At least 25 million individuals around the world are expected to live with Parkinson’s disease (PD) by the year 2050, posing a substantial public health challenge not just for patients and their families, but for caregivers, communities, and society as well, according to a study. 

Population ageing will be the main driver of the increasing number of PD cases from 2021 to 2050.

"The upward trend is expected to be more pronounced among countries with middle Socio-demographic Index, in the ... East Asia region, and among men,” the researchers said. “This projection could serve as an aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions, and allocating resources.”

This modelling study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to estimate the prevalent number, all age prevalence and age standardized prevalence of PD in 2050, and the average annual percentage change of prevalence from 2021 to 2050.

In addition, the researchers assessed the contribution of population ageing, population growth, and changes in prevalence to the growth in PD cases, as well as the population attributable fractions for modifiable factors.

An estimated 25.2 million (95 percent uncertainty interval [UI], 21.7–30.1) people would live with PD across the globe in 2050, signifying a 112-percent (95 percent UI, 71–152) increase from 2021. Population ageing (89 percent) was believed to be the primary contributor to such growth, followed by population growth (20 percent), and changes in prevalence (3 percent). [BMJ 2025;388:e080952]

The forecasted prevalence of PD in 2050 was 267 cases per 100,000, representing a 76-percent increase from 2021. On the other hand, the age standardized prevalence was expected to be 216 per 100,000, indicating a 55-percent increase from 2021.

East Asia

The percentage increase of PD cases between 2021 and 2050 was expected to be the highest among countries in the middle fifth of Socio-demographic Index, both in all age prevalence (144 percent) and age standardized prevalence (91 percent).

Among Global Burden of Disease regions, East Asia was projected to have the greatest number of people living with PD (10.9 million) in 2050, with western Sub-Saharan Africa having the most significant increase (292 percent) from 2021.

In terms of age group, individuals aged ≥80 years would experience the highest increase in the number of PD cases (196 percent) from 2021 to 2050. Additionally, the male-to-female ratios of age standardized prevalence of PD were expected to rise from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050 worldwide.

“Our projection for the global number of PD cases in 2040 considerably surpasses the previous estimates by Dorsey and colleagues, which relied on worldwide prevalence data from a meta-analysis conducted in 2014 and Global Burden of Disease 2015, along with population forecasts from the US Census Bureau,” the researchers said. [JAMA Neurol 2018;75:9-10]

“Future iterations of forecasting for prevalence of PD will be improved by incorporating other risk/protective factors and gathering more data from currently under-represented regions,” they added.